2025-26 Topps Chrome Basketball, by the numbers
October 10, 2026
Topps Chrome is the product the rest of the season is measured against: the first Chrome rookie cards of Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper and Kon Knueppel, released December 18, 2025. We ran Topps' odds, the pick-your-team breaks we could find and about 6,300 card sales through the WaxMath model. Here's what the numbers say, as of October 10, 2026.
The short version
- Three boxes: hobby (1 autograph), jumbo (3 autographs) and Breaker's Delight (one 10-card pack with 2 autographs).
- A jumbo box is the best way to chase the rookies: a Cooper Flagg autograph about once every 19 boxes, against once every 59 hobby boxes.
- A typical jumbo box holds about $265 of cards and a typical hobby box about $126. The averages are $591 and $276.
- At the last listed prices, a jumbo team spot's cards were worth about 29¢ for every $1 on average and about 12¢ in a typical break.
- No shop we track has a Chrome Basketball pick-your-team break open right now. The jumbo spot prices here were last listed in April 2026.
The three boxes
| Hobby | Jumbo | Breaker's Delight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packs | 20 packs of 4 | 12 packs of 11 | 1 pack of 10 |
| Cards | 80 | 132 | 10 |
| Boxes per case | 12 | 8 | 6 |
| Autographs guaranteed | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Sealed boxes sell for | about $899 | about $1,800 | not enough sales |
| Shops ask from | $1,199 | $2,150 | $3,499 |
Box prices have moved a long way since release, when hobby presold at about $370 and jumbo at about $700. "Sell for" is the middle price of sealed boxes sold on eBay in the last 45 days (21 hobby boxes, 11 jumbo). Shops ask more than that, as they usually do.
What one box gets you
These are expected counts, straight from Topps' odds:
| Per box | Hobby | Jumbo | Breaker's Delight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Autographs | 1.0 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Numbered cards | 3.0 | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| Parallels | 14.9 | 23.3 | 3.8 |
| Inserts | 12.2 | 14.6 | 1.7 |
The jumbo and Breaker's Delight counts come out just under the guarantee because Topps prints its odds as whole numbers. Every jumbo box has its three autographs.
Your chances at the cards people chase:
| Chance of pulling | Hobby | Jumbo | Breaker's Delight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Numbered auto /50 or rarer | 8% | 15% | — |
| Numbered auto /25 or rarer | 3.7% | 7% | 22% |
| Any 1/1 card | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
And for specific players, how many boxes it takes on average to pull any autograph:
| Player | Hobby | Jumbo |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper, Kon Knueppel, Ace Bailey | 1 in 51 | 1 in 16 |
| Cooper Flagg | 1 in 59 | 1 in 19 |
| Victor Wembanyama, LeBron James | 1 in 164 | 1 in 79 |
| Stephen Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 1 in 886 | 1 in 517 |
A jumbo box costs about twice a hobby box and gets you to a rookie autograph about three times as fast.
What a box is worth
We priced every card a box can hold: expected pulls from Topps' odds × what each card sells for, using real sales where they exist and a model of player demand and rarity where they don't. Then we opened 5,000 simulated boxes of each type.
| One box | Hobby | Jumbo |
|---|---|---|
| Sealed boxes sell for | about $899 | about $1,800 |
| Average card value | $276 | $591 |
| Typical box | $126 | $265 |
| 8 boxes in 10 land between | $69 and $438 | $138 and $1,238 |
A typical hobby box gives back about 14¢ on the dollar and a typical jumbo box about 15¢. The average is roughly twice the typical box, because the rare box with a numbered rookie autograph carries it.
Breaks: what team spots cost
Chrome Basketball is ten months old, and the break market has moved on to newer products. We found six pick-your-team jumbo breaks at Layton Sports Cards, each of four boxes, which we scale up to an eight-box case. All have sold out, and the newest was listed in April 2026. Treat these as last-known prices.
- A full jumbo case of team spots: about $16,095 at those prices.
- The case averages 23.5 autographs, so most teams get at least a share of one.
The most expensive jumbo spots:
| Team | Spot | Expected autos | Average card value | Typical break | Chance to break even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | $3,798 | 0.63 | $1,499 | $314 | 10% |
| Spurs | $1,758 | 1.05 | $953 | $407 | 14% |
| Hornets | $1,598 | 1.81 | $404 | $169 | 4% |
| Lakers | $898 | 0.66 | $200 | $76 | 3% |
| Jazz | $798 | 1.36 | $169 | $92 | 2% |
| Warriors | $798 | 0.60 | $136 | $49 | 2% |
Hobby and Breaker's Delight breaks are older still: the hobby listings we found date from December 2025. The live guide shows them, marked as last listed, and we draw no conclusions from them here.
Which jumbo spots were priced best?
Our estimates are good to about ±30% per team, so read these as rough groups:
- Least bad (cards worth 54¢ to 60¢ per $1): the Suns ($153) and the Spurs ($1,758). The Spurs have Harper and Wembanyama and more than one autograph a case, and their good breaks do pay: 1 break in 7 covers the spot.
- Middle (32¢ to 40¢): the Mavericks ($3,798), Heat ($153) and Kings ($118).
- Worst (12¢ or less per $1): the Pelicans ($758), Nuggets ($288), Bucks ($238), Grizzlies ($608) and 76ers ($728). The Pelicans spot cost $758 and its cards average $59.
Only two teams have a 1-in-10 good break that covers the spot price.
Our take
If you are breaking Chrome, break jumbo, and be picky about the team.
- Chasing Flagg: the Mavericks jumbo spot was last listed at $3,798, and the team averages 0.63 autographs a case, of any player. The cards reach that price about 1 time in 10.
- Best of the big spots: the Spurs at $1,758.
- Skip at those prices: the Pelicans, Grizzlies and 76ers, where the spot is priced for a name and the cards have not been selling to match.
- Opening a box yourself: jumbo over hobby if you want a rookie autograph, since it gets you there about three times as fast for about twice the money. Look at eBay as well as the shops: sealed boxes have been selling there for less than shops ask.
Box prices and card values above are as of October 10; the live guide updates them daily.
Prices change daily. The live guide has the full checklist and odds, what a box returns and the last listed spot prices. Odds are Topps', as published on Checklist Insider. Sold prices are eBay sales and public auction results. See our methodology for how every number is made.