2025-26 Topps Midnight Basketball, by the numbers
October 11, 2026
Midnight is the smallest box in this season's Topps basketball line: a single pack of seven cards, three of them autographs. It came out on January 29, 2026. We ran Topps' odds and about 3,900 card sales through the WaxMath model. Here's what the numbers say, as of October 11, 2026.
The short version
- A box is one 7-card pack with 3 autographs.
- You'll pull an autograph numbered to 25 or fewer in about 3 boxes out of 10, and one numbered to 50 or fewer in about half.
- Boxes presold at about $600. The few sealed boxes sold lately went for about $725.
- A typical box holds about $108 of cards. The average is about $269.
- No shop we track sells Midnight by the team. The breaks on offer are random-team only, so there are no team spot prices to compare.
The box
| Hobby | |
|---|---|
| Packs | 1 pack of 7 cards |
| Autographs | 3 |
| Boxes per case | 8 |
| Presale price (January 6) | $599.99 |
| What sealed boxes sell for now | about $725 |
The current price is the middle of only three sealed boxes sold on eBay in the last 45 days, so treat it as a rough guide.
What one box gets you
Expected counts, straight from Topps' odds:
| Per box | Expected |
|---|---|
| Autographs | 3 |
| Numbered cards | 2.4 |
| Parallels | 1.4 |
| Inserts | 1.5 |
Topps prints its odds as whole numbers, and added up they come to 2.9 autographs a box. Every box still has its three.
Your chances at the cards people chase:
| Chance of pulling | In 1 box | In a case (8) |
|---|---|---|
| Numbered auto /50 or rarer | 52% | more than 99% |
| Numbered auto /25 or rarer | 30% | 94% |
| Numbered auto /10 or rarer | 5% | 33% |
| A 1/1 autograph | 0.6% | 4% |
| Any 1/1 card | 1.1% | 8% |
For a specific player, any autograph of Dylan Harper or Cooper Flagg is about 1 in 27 boxes. Ace Bailey is about 1 in 29 and Kon Knueppel about 1 in 30. The veterans are much scarcer here: Stephen Curry and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are each about 1 in 150, and Victor Wembanyama and LeBron James about 1 in 380.
How many were made
Topps doesn't publish print runs, but the numbered parallels give it away: a /25 card exists in exactly 25 copies, so its odds tell you how many packs were opened to find them. Working back from 167 numbered versions, we estimate about 54,500 boxes, or roughly 6,800 cases. That makes Midnight a smaller release than Cosmic Chrome (about 83,000 hobby boxes).
What a box is worth
We priced every card a box can hold: expected pulls from Topps' odds × what each card sells for, using real sales where they exist and a model of player demand and rarity where they don't. Then we opened 5,000 simulated boxes.
| One box | |
|---|---|
| Price | about $725 |
| Average card value | about $269 |
| Typical box | about $108 |
| 8 boxes in 10 land between | $35 and $534 |
At $725 a typical box gives back about 15¢ on the dollar, and the average about 37¢. Three autographs a box sounds rich, but most of them are of players whose autographs sell for a few dollars. The average is two and a half times the typical box because a small number of rookie autographs carry it.
Breaks
Layton Sports Cards and The Clubhouse both break Midnight, and both sell it as random-team breaks: you pay one flat price and are assigned a team. A case holds eight boxes and about 23 autographs, so most teams get one. Which team you draw matters a great deal.
On our model, a case's cards are worth about $2,150 in total, and the value sits with very few teams:
| Team | Average card value in a case | Expected autographs |
|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | about $732 | 0.5 |
| Spurs | about $376 | 0.7 |
| Hornets | about $166 | 1.4 |
| Lakers | about $91 | 0.5 |
| Warriors | about $64 | 0.2 |
| Jazz | about $62 | 0.7 |
The Mavericks alone hold about a third of a case's value, and the Mavericks and Spurs together about half. The Nets show the other side: more autographs than any other team, 2.3 a case, and about $44 of cards.
Our take
Midnight is the box to open if you want three autographs every time, and not the box to open for value.
- Opening a box: fine for the experience. Expect about $108 of cards from a $725 box, and a much better result about 1 time in 10.
- Random-team breaks: two teams hold half the value, so most draws land on a team worth far less than the average spot. Check what the break charges against 1/30 of a case before you buy.
- Chasing a rookie: about 1 box in 27 has a Flagg or Harper autograph. Per box that beats Chrome hobby (about 1 in 59 for Flagg); per dollar, a Chrome jumbo box at 1 in 19 is still the better route.
Box prices and card values above are as of October 11; the live guide updates them daily.
Prices change daily. The live guide has the full checklist and odds and what a box returns. Odds are Topps', as published on Checklist Insider. Sold prices are eBay sales and public auction results. See our methodology for how every number is made.