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Questions and answers
What is a group break?
A breaker opens sealed boxes or cases of cards on a live stream, and buyers split the cost by buying spots. In a pick-your-team break you buy a team and get every card of that team's players. In a random-team break every spot costs the same and the teams are handed out at random. A division break sells a whole division as one spot.
What does WaxMath show for a product?
For every team: what its spot costs across the breakers we read, what the cards in it are worth, and the return per $1. Around that are the full checklist, the odds of every kind of hit, an estimated value for every card, a bid helper for checking a price before you pay it, and a live board for following a break as spots sell.
What is the difference between the typical return and the average return?
Both compare what a spot's cards are worth with what the spot costs. The average is taken over many breaks, and a few very rare cards pull it up. The typical return is the middle result of 5,000 simulated case breaks: half of breaks do better and half do worse. Most breaks come in under the average, so the typical figure is the better guide to what one spot will get you.
How are spot prices worked out?
From breakers' public listings, read once a day. Prices are compared like for like: the same product, box type, format and break size. Every shop gets one vote: we take each shop's median price for a spot, then average the shops, so a shop listing twelve breaks counts the same as a shop listing one. These are listed prices. We can't see what a spot finally sold for.
How are card values estimated?
Where one of the product's own cards has sold raw (not graded), that sold price is used. Where it hasn't, a model prices the card from how much demand there is for the player and how rare the version is, with the rarity curve fitted to real sales. Team estimates are good to about plus or minus 30%. They are estimates of sale prices before fees and postage, not guarantees.
How often do the numbers update?
Once a day. Breakers' listings and sealed box prices are read at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, and card values and returns are recalculated in the same run.
Which products are covered?
Basketball only for now. One product has a full guide today: 2025-26 Topps Pristine Basketball. The release calendar lists what is coming next, and each product gets a guide once its checklist and odds are out.
Why do most spots return less than they cost?
A breaker has to cover the boxes, the work and a margin, so the spots in a break usually add up to more than the same boxes cost sealed. And most of a product's value sits in a handful of rare cards. The average return counts those cards. Most breaks don't pull one, which is why the typical return is lower than the average.
Are accounts free, and what do they do?
Yes, accounts are free. An account does one thing today: you pick your teams, and they are starred and highlighted in every break guide. A weekly email with break prices and value for your teams is planned. It hasn't started, and it stays off unless you tick the box. Everything else on the site works without an account.
How do I reset my password?
Email hello@waxmath.com from the address on your account and we'll reply with a reset link, usually within a day. A link lasts 24 hours and works once. If you are logged in, you can change your password on the settings page.
Does WaxMath earn money from ads or links?
Yes. Free pages may show ads, and some links to eBay are partner links: if you buy through one, WaxMath may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Neither changes how any number is calculated. WaxMath isn't affiliated with any breaker or manufacturer.
Is this financial advice?
No. Prices, values and odds are estimates built from public listings, sold prices and the manufacturer's odds. They can be wrong or out of date, and no break is guaranteed to contain anything. Use them to compare spots and decide for yourself.